A survey of Moroccan economics on the world stage by comparison of the developments, challenges, and avenues for policy change that stand to alleviate historical demographic problems as Morocco becomes a global trade partner and figurehead of the Arab world. Cover: Marrakesh Medina Jemaa el-Fnaa, twilight.

Contents:

Parts 1.0. - 1.4. Population

Parts 2.0. - 2.4. Education

Parts 3.0. - 3.4. Rural-Urban Migration

Parts 4.0. - 4.3 International Trade

Part 1. Population

1.1. Measuring Population in Morocco

As of March 5th 2022, Morocco has a population of 36,533,641 individuals, making it the 12th largest country in Africa and 40th in the world by population (HCP, 2022). Since 1990, the population has increased by 67%, with the rate of population growth staying below 2% and tending downward (World Bank, 2022a).

The Country Similarity Index weighs equally demographic, cultural, political, infrastructural, and geographical similarities, and scores all countries by their performance. By this measure, neighbouring Northern African nations Algeria and Tunisia are closest by demography, culture and government, and by infrastructure and geography, respectively (Jones, J., 2020).

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Figure 1. Statistical comparison for five closest scoring nations (World Bank, 2022a); (UNDP, 2019); (Jones, 2020).

Of these five close counterparts, population, population growth rate, and GDP, behave linearly. However, Morocco performs comparatively better in birth and fertility rate, life expectancy and infant mortality, and lags behind in overall HDI (UNDP, 2019).

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Figure 2. 1960-2020 Trend in population growth rate for closest three countries (World Bank, 2020c).

In terms of population, Morocco’s closest counterparts are OECD nations Poland and Canada (see Figure 3). These countries have GDP per capita 5x and 14x greater than Morocco, respectively, and are characterised as being further along the Demographic Transition Model, with low growth or falling population, low infant mortality and more stability (World Bank, 2022a).

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Figure 3. Statistical comparison for global economies (World Bank, 2022); (UNDP, 2019).

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Figure 4. Demographic Transition Model (NAS, 1963).

1.2. Population Challenges in Morocco

Falling birth rates and death rates (75% decline since 1960) suggest Morocco is experiencing Stage III (see Figure 4) of the Demographic Transition Model (World Bank, 2022a).

Applying the Solow Growth Model to Morocco highlights potential concerns for population growth; an increase in population from n to n1 will result in an undersupply of capital and investment per worker needed to combat depreciation and maintain equilibrium, resulting in a fall in output per worker, (y0) to (y1). Given its population growth, Morocco will economically stagnate without growing investments into capital.

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Figure 5. Solow Model of Growth.

Malthusian theory warns that if population growth rate overcomes income growth rate (Points A and C) it may create a ‘population trap’, holding back development (assuming no technological progress).

Morocco has experienced a rising rate of population growth during 1974-1984 and 2004-2013, in synchrony with the economic cycle. Ceteris paribus, a Malthusian Population Trap may occur during these periods as income growth is overtaken. While in reality, these periods of growth coincide with more significant growth in income (Figure 7). Instead, periods of recession are most dangerous to Morocco; population momentum may cause inclining growth rates even after income growth rates start falling. If income falls below population growth, Morocco ma enter economic decline.

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Figure 6 & 7. [Left] Malthusian Population Trap, [right] GDP p.p. in Morocco ($000’s) (World Bank, 2022a; Todoro & Smith, 2015).

1.3. Fertility Developments

As household income increases, demand for children falls. But while demographic shifts, such as the doubling of population living in urban areas since 1990, have vastly reduced the rate of child labour, recent estimates suggest 247,000 children aged 7-17 work for their household in Morocco (MWN, 2017). The majority live in rural areas where, according to Basu and Van, the luxury axiom applies and household income is below the subsistence level (Basu & Van, 1998).

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Figure 8. Fertility Rate in Morocco (World Bank, 2020d).

As income rises, Marginal Benefit of having new children falls as demand increases for other goods and services. Similarly, prohibiting child participation in the workforce is an international standard and reduces MB. Equally, Marginal Cost rises MMC to MMC2 as the efforts associated with raising children have more consequence for a better-earning household.

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Figures 9 & 10. [Left] Basic Model, [right] microeconomic Analysis of Demand for Children (Basu & Van, 1998).

1.4. Suggestions for Moroccan Population Policy Change

With fertility, inequality, and child labour rates far greater than most OECD countries, Morocco must target change in long-standing demographic norms to expect transformation in-line with other HDCs; Morocco ranks 144th of 156 countries in the Gender Gap Index, and 12th of the 19 regional (MENA) countries, with over 85% of all managerial and ministerial positions held by men (World Economic Forum, 2021). As a UN Sustainable Development Goal, Morocco should focus on empowering women and girls who have astonishingly low literacy rates (59%) by financially and politically supporting female access to education. Dropping out, predominantly done to develop domestic skills, should be dissuaded from with improved career prospects for women, achieved through ‘Women in Workforce’ programs (Auletto, 2020).

A 1% increase in women completing secondary education results in a 0.3% increase in GDP per capita income, along with increased life expectancy, improved maternal and child health, reduced fertility rates and greater education levels for the next generation (Rihani, 2006; Stromquist, 2007; Filmer, 2000).

Another important recourse would be to help Morocco meet international standards for child labour. Of Morocco’s employed children, 81.4% dropped out of school and 8% never attended. Thus, the government should prohibit underage workforce access by making education compulsory until 15 years old, with longer-term criminal sentences for violation. A benefits system offering families minimum subsistence would complement this regulation, ensure quality of life is maintained and further reduce demand-for-children by leveraging nation-wide household income.

These supply-side policies will only fully realise their impact in the long-run as generational culture takes time to change. Population momentum and the repercussions of COVID-19 may delay implementation further still, as social distancing measures are lifted. But these policies are the strongest investment for economic development based on current population trends in Morocco.

2. Education

2.1. Measuring Education in Morocco

Adult literacy rates in Morocco are 83% for men and 65% for women (World Bank, 2022b). Over the last fifteen years, significant progress has been made in education with the recently educated generation of 15–24-year-olds having 97.7% literacy. Enrolment rates in higher education have increased from 50.4% in 2005 to 82.5% in 2020.

Total expected years of education in Morocco are 14.4 years for men and 13.9 years for women; at 83rd highest in the world and 3rd in the African continent (World Bank, 2020a). The two African nations ahead are Morocco’s close counterparts Algeria and Tunisia by measure of the Country Similarity Index (weight of demographic, structural, political, infrastructural, and geographical similitude) (Jones, J., 2020).

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Figure 11. Statistics for five closest CSI nations (World Bank, 2022a; UNDP, 2019; Jones, J., 2022).

2.2. Main Challenges in Morocco’s Education System

Since 1988, Morocco has made education reform, progress has been made in basic education, with male-to-female literacy gap now as low as 0.6% for 15-24-year-olds (World Bank, 2022b). However, Morocco has underperformed in important measures of educational quality such as pupil-teacher ratio, which is directly correlated to the level of academic performance and graduation rate (Roser, M., 2017). With 25.88 children per class in 2015, Morocco is behind world average (UNESCO, 2015).

This figure has stagnated for over two decades, while similar nations have seen large improvements. Tunisia saw classroom sizes fall from 25 to 15 pupils, versus Morocco’s 29 to 25 post-2000 (World Bank, 2022). While other western economies have seen similar slowed growth, they are typically at considerably lower levels of around 15 pupils per teacher with the EU average at 13.5.

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Figures 12 & 13. [Left] Pupil-teacher ratio CSI comparisons over time, and [right] Statistics for other world economies (World Bank, 2022c; UNDP, 2019; Jones, J., 2022).

Another major challenge Morocco faces is the level of female workforce opportunity in earnings potential. Morocco ranks 144th of 156 countries in the Gender Gap Index and 12th of the 19 regional countries (MENA) (WEF, 2021). Over 85% of all managerial and ministerial positions are held by men. This lack of diversity causes two-factor challenges in the workforce; women with equal education earn less in proportion to men, and they have less motivational obligation to train at tertiary level. While the female population is increasingly literate, their lack of power in workforce negotiations mean highly literate and educated graduates ultimately have little to no economic impact.

Assuming equality of opportunity, a 1% increase in women completing secondary education incites an increase in GDP per capita of 0.3%, along with significant health benefits such as improved personal hygiene and sanitation, delayed childbearing, and better trained doctors and nurses, greater household nutrition and wellbeing and subsequently greater participation rates in the classroom (APN, 1995).

2.3. The Importance of Education

Output and output growth are functions of capital (K), human capital (H), labour (L), and technology (A), determined by the augmented production function;

function

The level of human capital contributes as much as 15% of African growth; double the level of Europe and North America, meaning investment offers greater than normal returns (Wahba, J., 2022).

Human capital and its potential to improve economic growth is determined by the quantity and quality of education in the workforce (Tilak, 2003). Each additional year of schooling has been found to increase income by 10% and average GDP by 0.37% annually (Hanushek, E., 203; Psacharopoulos & Patrinos, 2004). Four additional years of schooling is associated with 8.7% growth in production (Lockheed et al., 1980).

Some estimates determine that lower-middle-income countries need to spend 5.4% of GDP on education to improve their nation’s education framework to one of upper-income levels (Grant, C., 2017). By this measure, Morocco scores highly at 51st in the world, spending precisely 5.4% of its GDP on education, far above the worldwide average with an approximate $22 billion financing gap (World Bank, 2020b; UNESCO, 2016).

2.4. Suggestions for Educational Policy in Morocco

For policy makers, achieving the maximum social rate of return to any educational investment is about providing education at the maximum marginal social return and the minimum marginal social cost (Wahba, J., 2022). According to the Mincer equation (1958), less developed countries with agricultural or manufacturing based economies see highest returns to education at primary school level, while the most developed countries see them at tertiary education (Patrinos, H., 2016); increasing time spent in higher education by one year on average would boost incomes by 5-8% on average and more for North African economies such as Morocco (Bloom et al., 2006). Shifting from A to B (figure 4) requires a multi-aspect investment approach without any short-term solution.

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Figure 14. Marginal Cost vs. Marginal Returns for education.

In financing educational policy, high rates of return are found through investment in girls’ education (Patrinos, H., 2016). Providing financial support for women taking courses in higher education;

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Where mean earnings of a primary-educated female worker is (y1), returns to investment in education for women (r) can be achieved by: increasing the mean earnings of tertiary educated women (y2↑), one solution would be to offer grants to companies with zero gender pay gap and fair ratio workforces; improving class attainment levels to reduce the number of years of schooling it takes to achieve higher education (s↓), one solution would be to offer higher pay for graduate teachers and professors; and reducing the annual cost of staying in higher education (c1↓), one solution would be to offer student loans and scholarships, particularly for women (Wahba, J., 2022).

An alternative policy would be to raise the quality of teaching, which includes higher rates of teacher-pupil supervision (with a larger teacher workforce), but also by increasing the minimum level of pedagogical training required to ‘qualify’ for a teaching role (Roser, M., 2017). While all Moroccan teachers are all trained and qualified, academics have recently striked over poor pay and working conditions, with top levels of pay less-than-half of that in countries such as the UK (SalaryExplorer, 2022; Indeed, 2022).

Rural-Urban Migration

3.1. Measuring Rural-Urban Migration in Morocco

Between 1960 and 2020, the proportion of Moroccans living in urban areas increased two-fold, from 29% to 64% (Abdesslam, B., 2012; World Bank, 2021a). This is the general average for its closest five nations (by CSI score). Since 2012, rural-urban migration has averaged 2.2%/year against 1.3%/year population growth, meaning cities have grown at 3.5%/year on average in Morocco (APN, 1995).

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Figures 15 & 16. Urban population comparisons for closest CSI nations (World Bank, 2020b).

There is also evidence of main city bias, with a ratio of 2.83 between Casablanca and Fez, the second largest city Considered the economic and commercial centre of Morocco, as well as its main seaport, Casablanca is Morocco’s most populous urban agglomeration, with 3.36 million residents (HCP, 2015). Rabat is the capital and political centre, and 7th largest city.

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Figure 17. Morocco: Fifteen Most Populous Agglomerations (HCP, 2015).

3.2. Motivations for R-U Migration in Morocco

According to Massey et al. (1993) motivations are primarily (1) Relative deprivation; people want to improve their economic situation. And (2) reducing family risk; diversifying family roles to benefit from more opportunities and suffer less in downturns. Within these, reasons can be attributed to several economic, social, and environmental factors.

The most identified reason for rural-urban migration is for better jobs and wages, greater job security and diversified job opportunities, being 33% of all migrants’ main motivations (APN, 1995; Haden, M., 2020). The Harris-Todaro (1970) model gives insight into the income motivation, with M = rate of rural-migration, Wu being expected urban wage, and Wr being rural wage.

function

Rural-urban migration will continue as long as M > 0, where Morocco has M = f(3032-2390); (approx. 642). Urban and rural wages are calculated as: 0.907 (unemployment rate) multiplied by minimum wage and the average agricultural wage, respectively (minimum-wage.org, 2022; World Bank, 2021a; GLWC, 2022). The rural labour market has a higher rate of unemployment (14.5%) than the urban market (9.3%) (Lall et al., 2019; World Bank, 2022d).

31% indicated migration was to join a family member or spouse, evident by the low rate of remittances paid to rural relatives at only 7% (APN, 1995).

The remaining reasons include 11% migrating for education, given by the fact that 87.5% of migrants were under 30 years old at time of departure there is a high rate of rural flight (APN, 1995). Though rural flight could also be a product of technological advances reducing demand for agricultural workers, and the effects of climate change reducing yields. Morocco is classified as ‘very vulnerable’ by the United Nations (2015) with over 40% of the population depending on agriculture to make a living.

3.3. Consequences of R-U Migration

Rural-urban migration may lead to informal markets and lower quality of life for urban citizens. When agricultural wage (Wr) and urban minimum wage W, if demand is low for labour, firms may lay-off workers at W in favour of hiring workers willing to work for lower wages, which for rural-urban migrants is as low as Wr (Wahba, 2022). The influx of low-cost workers will therefore make the market more competitive, and supply will shift out, reducing average wages in cities.

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Figure 18. The effect of rural-urban migration on urban wages.

Consequently, average urban households will experience income levels below minimum wage, closer to the regional poverty line. Further effects of migration are a demand-side pressure on the housing market, leading to overcrowding, homelessness, and shanty towns (Todaro & Smith, 2015). Congested transport systems and pollution will further exacerbate the quality of life of urban dwellers along with higher crime rates as citizens must find new sources of income.

Furthermore, how citizens urbanise greatly impacts political developments. Governments favour their population’s votes and satisfaction, and it is more resource-effective to subsidise goods and services in the single location that has the largest body of people (Ades & Glaeser, 1995). With disproportionate state investment in one place, corporations are best to operate at the centre of intellectual, infrastructural, and political spill-over effects and where trade barriers are lowest.

Concentrations of power are associated with authoritarian rule such as dictatorships, as needs and wants are satisficed most effectively in the largest city, compared to more democratic distributions of resources (Figure 20) (Ades & Glaeser,1995). Over time, this can lead to significant political instability, lobbying and intrinsic corruption, and data shows (Figure 11) this may be the case for some North African counterparts.

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Figure 19. Main-city concentration over time by CSI score (World Bank, 2021a).

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Figure 20. Main-city concentrations plotted against rate of revolution and coup.

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Figure 21. Urban concentrations by CSI score (World Bank, 2022a).

3.4. Suggestions for Rural-Urban Policy in Morocco

The urban population are predicted to comprise over 75% of the nation by 2050, with 32.08 million residents (CEIC, 2014). Populations can live sustainably in urban regions if they are distributed across a multitude of developed centres and industries; high-income economies typically generate lower than 1% of GDP in agriculture, while for Morocco and other Southern Neighbourhood economies, 12% is average (World Bank, 2022a).

Reducing urban concentration levels with integrated rural development schemes will help slow the rate of migration. Policy such as grants for firms operating in atypical regions, and the erection of universities in medium-to-low population cities will enable intellectual and economic spill-overs to leave existing urban centres and gentrify rural areas (Ades & Glaeser, 1995). Increasing transportation links will reduce trade barriers for firms outside Casablanca, and more rural firms will increase performance.

Simultaneously, to keep urban wages constant, policy should be enacted that mitigates the effects of congestion and climate change and counteracting rising costs of living. New housing developments and rent capping will make urban income go further by counteracting demand-side pressure, given relative value of Income = (Wages - Cost).

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Figure 22. Urban Housing Market with New Developments.

Improving the water supply in rural areas by building dams e.g. in Draa river, will reduce costs for rural dwellers, and by further subsidising the growing of citrus fruits, public services, and fertilizers, policy will make rural living more cheap, reducing urban bias.

4. International Trade

4.1. Main Measures of International Trade in Morocco

Morocco is Africa’s 6th largest economy by GDP (IMF, 2022). With abundant natural resources, it has strong mining, textile, tourism, and retail industries and has Free Trade Agreements with the EU, US and Turkey, making it their main Southern Neighbourhood trade partner (European Commission, 2020). 39% of Morocco’s GDP is exportables and as of 2019, terms of trade were 107% (Global Economy, 2019). With an ‘ease of doing business’ at 53rd in the world, Morocco has the highest grade in Africa (World Bank, 2021b).

As a sector, agriculture employs 40% of the workforce, significantly above its closest CSI counterparts (CIA, 2019). It is the 3rd largest olive producer, 4th largest tangerine producer and 20th largest wheat producer in the world and unlike Algeria, Tunisia, Jordan, and Mauritania, can be self-sufficient in food production (Amayed, 2019; OBG, 2018; JT, 2014; Capaldo, 2017; Magnan et al., 2011). Morocco is ‘one of the most dynamic exporters of fishery products’ (Moroccan Government, 2012), which it constitutes 56% of primary exports (16% of total exports).

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Figure 23. Workforce and GDP breakdown by sector (World Bank, 2022a; CIA, 2019).

4.2. The Importance of Trade and its Primary Challenges

Morocco is in a unique situation with both strong western trade links and an economy highly impacted by agriculture. Nationwide, agriculture can cause GDP growth of 5% when rainfall is good, and -10% in drought (Mansouri, 2008). In 1995, Morocco entered recession due to severe drought and did not recover until 2001 (WTO, 1996). Recent developments during COVID-19 lead to a deep recession, the product of collapsing tourism revenues, disruption of supply chains, and agricultural shock due to drought (World Bank, 2021a).

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Figure 24. Terms of Trade (2012-2019) (WTO, 2019).

Moroccan terms of trade have been falling since 2008 as unit values of their exports have depreciated against imports (WTO, 1996). While Morocco has improved production rates with technology, agricultural crops such as cereals fall in price long-term, demanding constantly increasing production. For a nation ‘very vulnerable’ (Harvey et al., 2010) to climate change, their agricultural dependency is highly risky and long-term unsustainable (Prebisch-Singer hypothesis). Economies pivoting into service-based economies may find their terms of trade falling; the measure leaves the nature of and overall scale of imports and exports unaccounted for. Long-term, there is less scope for increasing returns to scale and more scope for technical progress in manufacturing, including the development of more synthetic and resource efficient substitutes for primary commodities (Wahba, J., 2022).

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Figure 25. The Deterioration in Terms of Trade.

Initially, exports > imports, but over time, terms of trade fall along with exchange rates and the rising of import prices (Wahba, J., 2022). With trade, nations initially produce at P and consuming at X (Figure 25). After the fall in terms of trade, they produce at Q and consume at Y (Pettinger, 2018). Long-term, as globalisation opens a nation to more competitive markets, trade will stimulate economic growth by acting as a rationing agent for firms that don’t innovate. Transforming into a more productive economy requires resources be allocated in more intensive processes that offer higher rates-of-return, ideally where a nation has a comparative advantage (Wahba, J., 2022).

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Figure 26. Consumption and Production in Morocco Given International Trade.

Internationally, nations with global trade access will produce differently to how they would without (Figure 26) (Wahba, J., 2022). International markets value goods above and below their domestic value due to the available skills and resources in a region. Naturally, goods and services with the greatest margin in the international market are the comparative advantage to produce and then export internationally, thus countries at A can earn more by producing specialised exports at B and importing at C.

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Figure 17. Global Comparisons in Trade and Productivity (World Bank, 2022a; Global Economy, 2019).

4.3. Policy Options for Promoting International Trade Performance in Morocco

Morocco can stimulate economic development by improving its ‘competitiveness’, but being already the 2nd most competitive African nation, this development will be new for African nations (Schwab, 2019). The World Economic Forum (2017) cite inadequate infrastructure, restrictive labour regulations, and restrictive access to finances, as some of its anti-competitive challenges.

Export promotion by means of building better production infrastructure for raw materials and industrial goods will give Morocco significant global market presence if industries with competitive advantages are targeted. Moroccan fishing, particularly sardines (1st in world) and phosphates (fertilizers, phosphoric acid; 3rd in world behind US and China), are major caches of exportable resources (Tanchum, 2022; Teller Report, 2021). With 75% of the world’s phosphate reserves, Morocco plays a significant role in fertilizer and chemical markets worldwide, acting as gatekeeper to the African agricultural industry (Tanchum, 2022).

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Figure 28. (Moring, 2021)

First, Morocco can improve trading relations and economic income by persuading importers to purchase Moroccan products. Loan provision to foreign buyers and signing trade agreements would attract trade partnerships and promote transnational corporations and their investment in Morocco, e.g. Offering fertilizer contracts to Nigeria. (Shields, 1997).

The degree to which the domestic market can then fulfil these opportunities is dependent on Morocco’s ‘ease of doing business’, the availability of financing, and the quality of human capital available for employment. Given low female workforce representation and high main-city-concentration, said degree may be challenging for Morocco; further investment in Casablanca would reduce spill-overs for the rest of the country, increasing rural-urban migration and its negative symptoms.

Second, Morocco should reduce their historical economic instability, improve balance of payments and increase industrial self-reliance by import substitution policy such as tariff protection. Applying a tariff of T on information technology services, for example (Figure 28), would grow revenue for suppliers (2) and the government (3), enabling greater domestic reinvestment than if advertising spending, hosting revenues, and e-commerce sales were absorbed by foreign firms. However, while this affords time to innovate, consumers lose welfare of (1+2+3+4) until prices equalise. Overly protected industries become inefficient and detrimental (Wahba, J., 2022). Tariffs should be used moderately, and only to protect specific domestic industries while they develop to maturity.

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Figure 28. Impact of a Tariff.

Glossary

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Population Pyramid, Morocco (2020).

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Expanded Contents:

1.0. Population

  • 1.1. Measuring Population in Morocco
  • 1.2. Population Challenges in Morocco
  • 1.3. Fertility Developments
  • 1.4. Suggestions for Moroccan Population Policy Change

2.0. Education

  • 2.1. Measuring Education in Morocco
  • 2.2. Main Challenges in Morocco’s Education System
  • 2.3. The Importance of Education
  • 2.4. Suggestions for Educational Policy in Morocco

3.0. Rural-Urban Migration

  • 3.1. Measuring Rural-Urban Migration in Morocco
  • 3.2. Motivations for R-U Migration in Morocco
  • 3.3. Consequences of R-U Migration
  • 3.4. Suggestions for Rural-Urban Policy in Morocco

4.0. International Trade

  • 4.1. Main Measures of International Trade in Morocco
  • 4.2. The Importance of Trade and its Primary Challenges
  • 4.3. Policy Options for Promoting International Trade Performance in Morocco